Thursday 11th February 2016 – Sunday 14th February 2016

Hello again,

Another week has gone by and more rain has fallen across the region. In fact, Monday (8th Feb) was the 4th wettest day since my records began here in August 2012, with 31.4mm of rain recorded. This all came from Storm Imogen which brought almost 100mph gusts to the south coast. Although we didn’t feel much impact from the winds [41mph recorded Monday night] it never stopped raining.

All this wet weather led BBC Radio Manchester to get in touch, as they had a feature on the show this morning (10th) regarding the non-stop wet weather we have been having. I was unable to attend as I was on the school run but it did give me the opportunity to dig out some statistics for them.

  • We are today (10th) likely to have our first dry day for 17 days!
  • Since November the 1st 2015 we have had 635mm (25 inches) of rain and in that time 90% of the days recorded rainfall. That’s 6mm a day on average.
  • We have only had 10 dry days since the end of October 2015.

The Jet stream is now slightly further south so we are experiencing some colder air and some welcome sunny spells. Not only does it look like today will be dry, Thursday and Friday could follow suit.

Jet stream

The Jet stream has dipped south into the back end of this week

A cold start to Thursday with local fog and frost, so you could be deicing before work. A mainly dry dry to follow with sunny spells and a low risk of a fleeting wintry shower. Max 6°C.

Similar on Friday, cold start, some localised frost but more cloud is expected later in the day. Beforehand, plenty of bright spells and again we should escape with a dry day. A cold easterly breeze arriving. Max 5°C.

Now into the weekend, Saturday, it gets a little tricky.

Saturday will be cold with a mainly cloudy picture across the region. There is a risk of rain coming in from the south-west, the track of this and how far north it gets is still uncertain. It could turn to snow in places as the milder air meets the cold air. My feeling is that it will stay further south but one to watch for updates via Twitter and I should know more by Thursday evening. Bitter easterly breeze. Max 4°C.

rain or snow

A risk of rain turing to snow on Saturday – where, is still uncertain

cold v mild

Snow could occur where the mild air meets the cold air

The low pressure and its mix of rain or snow moves away south into Sunday allowing the winds to switch from an easterly to an Arctic northerly bringing the risk of scattered hail, sleet or snow showers but sunny spells as well. A low windchill. Max 4°C.

Both nights over the weekend will be cold with a risk of ice and frost.

windchill

Sub-zero windchill of -5 by the end of Sunday

frosty early next week

Settled, drier but frosty as we head into next week

Looking ahead and early next week sees some settled weather with sunny spells by day and cold frosty nights. Later in the week it looks likely that the winds will return to bring the Jet stream back over us and with it some wetter milder weather but there is some question mark over the timing of this. For now though, the good news is, no significant rainfall or another named-storm on the cards.

will the jet come back

But when will that Jet stream and the wetter/milder weather return?

Remember to follow @ChadWeather on Twitter to catch all the latest weather updates for Manchester and its surrounding boroughs.

Thanks for reading,

Jon

Photos/Data: http://www.ukweatherforecast.co.uk; http://www.netweather.tv and http://www.theweatheroutlook.com

Forecast issued at 14:15 on Wednesday 10th of February 2016

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3 thoughts on “Thursday 11th February 2016 – Sunday 14th February 2016

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